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Elizabeth Boskey, Ph.D.

Correlation is Not Causation

By , About.com GuideSeptember 14, 2011

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Every time that Michele Bachmann talks about something having to do with science, my head starts aching, and I begin waiting for the steam to start puffing out of my ears. Her current anti-intellectual sin? Trying to link Gardasil to mental retardation. Now, I'm the first to admit that Gardasil is an easy target. Although it's actually a very safe vaccine, it offends a lot of people's morals to vaccinate young women against a sexually transmitted disease. Therefore, they've been grasping at straws looking for reasons to talk people out of HPV vaccination for years. Unfortunately, much to the disappointment of the detractors, there's no good reason to do so. Gardasil may hurt, but on further investigation, most of the seemingly serious side effects that people have experienced around the time they were vaccinated have not been linked to the vaccine.

That said, although I think that Ms. Bachmann is particularly idiotic about scientific issues, many politicians do a terrible job of integrating science into their policy. They have trouble understanding that one research study is almost never enough to base their positions on, and they desperately cling to the belief that correlation is the same as causation when doing so supports their prejudices. The problem is, it's not. Just because a death or a serious illness happens shortly after a girl has been vaccinated doesn't mean that the vaccine caused the side effect. Much of the time it would have happened anyway, which is why the scientists associated with the Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System put so much time into investigating reports of negative outcomes. Medical tragedies that happen around the time of vaccination are unquestionably tragedies, but they aren't always caused by vaccination.

That sort of reasoning fallacy is a potent reminder that while science is important, it isn't easy. That's why it's such a shame that politicians seem to be so reluctant to ask for help in learning about the things they don't understand. Scientific and environmental policy would make a lot more sense if they were based on data rather than the false certainty of "common" sense.

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